The Cabot’s Tragopan, Tragopan caboti, endemic to China, is among one of the critically endangered species globally. It is distributed only in Zhejiang, Fujiang, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangdong and Guangxi province. There are about 4,000 individuals in the wild but their natural habitat is seriously fragmented. One captive population has been established in Hunan since 1997 by adding new individuals, and its population stood at 131 individuals in 2004. Based on the data collected from this captive population, we used Vortex 9.51 to simulate the dynamics of this population. Results of the simulation suggested that the population has a 97% probability of being extinct under current conditions, within the next 100 years. The high mortality of adult females and the impact of disasters are two key factors which influence the long-term survival of the population. The possibility of extinction will decline to 5% if the mortality of adult females was decreased to the level between 2002 and 2004. And it will decline to 0 if disasters were controlled at the same time. Carrying capacity has positive impacts on the population size and genetic diversity, but has no impact on the extinction probability. Taking individuals out of the wild can only be considered when the mortality of the adult females has decreased and disasters are controlled. Five adult males and five adult females can be taken out of the wild when the population has reproduced after 10 years. To ensure the long-term survival of this captive population, management should focus on decreasing the mortality in adult females, controlling disasters, and increasing the carrying capacity.