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The correlations between population of Oriental white stork and climate change in the Poyang Lake National Nature Reserve

Lu-Jun MIAO Yan-Kuo LI Jia LI Guang-Yong XIE Fang-Kai YUAN

Lu-Jun MIAO, Yan-Kuo LI, Jia LI, Guang-Yong XIE, Fang-Kai YUAN. The correlations between population of Oriental white stork and climate change in the Poyang Lake National Nature Reserve. Zoological Research, 2013, 34(6): 549-555. doi: 10.11813/j.issn.0254-5853.2013.6.0549
Citation: Lu-Jun MIAO, Yan-Kuo LI, Jia LI, Guang-Yong XIE, Fang-Kai YUAN. The correlations between population of Oriental white stork and climate change in the Poyang Lake National Nature Reserve. Zoological Research, 2013, 34(6): 549-555. doi: 10.11813/j.issn.0254-5853.2013.6.0549

鄱阳湖国家级自然保护区东方白鹳(Ciconia boyciana)种群数量变化与气候的关系

doi: 10.11813/j.issn.0254-5853.2013.6.0549
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金(31000196);“国家级自然保护区生态环境十年变化调查与评估”(环保重大专项,STSN-7)
详细信息
  • 中图分类号: Q959.7

The correlations between population of Oriental white stork and climate change in the Poyang Lake National Nature Reserve

  • 摘要: 该研究分析了1985—2011年鄱阳湖国家级自然保护区东方白鹳(Ciconia boyciana)越冬种群数量的年际变化趋势,探究了越冬地气候条件对其种群数量变化的影响。结果表明,1985—2011年,保护区东方白鹳种群数量为(1 340±178)只,呈显著线性增长趋势,但年际波动较大。种群数量与越冬当年11月份的平均最低气温显著正相关(r=0.554,P=0.003,n=27),越冬初期较低的温度可能影响东方白鹳选择鄱阳湖作为长期越冬地的决策,而增加对长江中、下游其他湿地的利用。同时,越冬地气候条件对种群数量的影响存在显著的时滞效应。越冬初期以及越冬后期的气温变量与2~9年后的种群数量显著正相关。尤其是越冬初期10月份的气温变量与2~5年后的种群数量变化极显著相关,越冬后期2月和3月的气温变量分别与8年后和3年后的种数数量极显著正相关。多元线性回归分析结果表明,2年前的10月平均最高温度、2年前的3月平均最高气温、4年前的10月平均最高温度、4年前的3月平均气温是东方白鹳种群数量变化的显著预测变量,共同解释了种群数量年际变化的79.2% (R2=0.792,F=20.901,df=26,P=0.000)。越冬初期和末期可能是个体迁飞后补充能量和迁飞前积累能量的关键阶段,适宜的气温有利于成体的能量积累和幼体的存活,且东方白鹳性成熟年龄为2~6年,因此,越冬地气候条件对其种群增长的影响将会在2年后体现。
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  • 收稿日期:  2013-09-27
  • 修回日期:  2013-10-24
  • 刊出日期:  2013-12-08

The correlations between population of Oriental white stork and climate change in the Poyang Lake National Nature Reserve

doi: 10.11813/j.issn.0254-5853.2013.6.0549
    基金项目:  国家自然科学基金(31000196);“国家级自然保护区生态环境十年变化调查与评估”(环保重大专项,STSN-7)
  • 中图分类号: Q959.7

摘要: 该研究分析了1985—2011年鄱阳湖国家级自然保护区东方白鹳(Ciconia boyciana)越冬种群数量的年际变化趋势,探究了越冬地气候条件对其种群数量变化的影响。结果表明,1985—2011年,保护区东方白鹳种群数量为(1 340±178)只,呈显著线性增长趋势,但年际波动较大。种群数量与越冬当年11月份的平均最低气温显著正相关(r=0.554,P=0.003,n=27),越冬初期较低的温度可能影响东方白鹳选择鄱阳湖作为长期越冬地的决策,而增加对长江中、下游其他湿地的利用。同时,越冬地气候条件对种群数量的影响存在显著的时滞效应。越冬初期以及越冬后期的气温变量与2~9年后的种群数量显著正相关。尤其是越冬初期10月份的气温变量与2~5年后的种群数量变化极显著相关,越冬后期2月和3月的气温变量分别与8年后和3年后的种数数量极显著正相关。多元线性回归分析结果表明,2年前的10月平均最高温度、2年前的3月平均最高气温、4年前的10月平均最高温度、4年前的3月平均气温是东方白鹳种群数量变化的显著预测变量,共同解释了种群数量年际变化的79.2% (R2=0.792,F=20.901,df=26,P=0.000)。越冬初期和末期可能是个体迁飞后补充能量和迁飞前积累能量的关键阶段,适宜的气温有利于成体的能量积累和幼体的存活,且东方白鹳性成熟年龄为2~6年,因此,越冬地气候条件对其种群增长的影响将会在2年后体现。

English Abstract

缪泸君, 李言阔, 李佳, 谢光勇, 袁芳凯. 鄱阳湖国家级自然保护区东方白鹳(Ciconia boyciana)种群数量变化与气候的关系[J]. 动物学研究, 2013, 34(6): 549-555. doi: 10.11813/j.issn.0254-5853.2013.6.0549
引用本文: 缪泸君, 李言阔, 李佳, 谢光勇, 袁芳凯. 鄱阳湖国家级自然保护区东方白鹳(Ciconia boyciana)种群数量变化与气候的关系[J]. 动物学研究, 2013, 34(6): 549-555. doi: 10.11813/j.issn.0254-5853.2013.6.0549
Lu-Jun MIAO, Yan-Kuo LI, Jia LI, Guang-Yong XIE, Fang-Kai YUAN. The correlations between population of Oriental white stork and climate change in the Poyang Lake National Nature Reserve. Zoological Research, 2013, 34(6): 549-555. doi: 10.11813/j.issn.0254-5853.2013.6.0549
Citation: Lu-Jun MIAO, Yan-Kuo LI, Jia LI, Guang-Yong XIE, Fang-Kai YUAN. The correlations between population of Oriental white stork and climate change in the Poyang Lake National Nature Reserve. Zoological Research, 2013, 34(6): 549-555. doi: 10.11813/j.issn.0254-5853.2013.6.0549
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