A Preliminary Analysis on Population Viability for Black Bear in Wolong

According to the relative parameters,the population dynamics of the black bears in Wolong Nature Reserve were simulated by a simulation modal-Vortex 8.21,and the factors affecting the population were also analyzed.The results showed as follows:without inbreeding depression and catastrophes,the population would gradually increase,otherwise it would decrease.Some recommendations on conversation ac-tion are put forward based on the ananlyses.