卧龙自然保护区黑熊种群生存力初步分析

A Preliminary Analysis on Population Viability for Black Bear in Wolong

摘要: 依据黑熊种群的相关参数，借助旋涡软件(Vortex 8.21)，对卧龙自然保护区内黑熊的种群动态进行了模拟分析。结果表明：在没有近亲繁殖和食物歉收、人类诱捕等灾害影响的情况下，卧龙黑熊种群数量100年间稳步增长；而在加入近亲繁殖和灾害等因素时，种群数量下降。据此，提出了相应的保护施和建议。

Abstract: According to the relative parameters,the population dynamics of the black bears in Wolong Nature Reserve were simulated by a simulation modal-Vortex 8.21,and the factors affecting the population were also analyzed.The results showed as follows:without inbreeding depression and catastrophes,the population would gradually increase,otherwise it would decrease.Some recommendations on conversation ac-tion are put forward based on the ananlyses.