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张耀南, 郝美, 雷富民, 星 智, 侯元生, 罗 泽. 2009: 环青海湖斑头雁种群数量动态模拟及趋势分析. 动物学研究, 30(5): 578-584. DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1141.2009.05578
引用本文: 张耀南, 郝美, 雷富民, 星 智, 侯元生, 罗 泽. 2009: 环青海湖斑头雁种群数量动态模拟及趋势分析. 动物学研究, 30(5): 578-584. DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1141.2009.05578
ZHANG Yao-nan, HAO Mei-yu, LEI Fu-ming, XING Zhi, HOU Yuan-sheng, LUO Ze. 2009: Simulation of Population Dynamics of Bar-headed Geese (Anser Indicus) Around Qinghai lake region and Trend Analysis. Zoological Research, 30(5): 578-584. DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1141.2009.05578
Citation: ZHANG Yao-nan, HAO Mei-yu, LEI Fu-ming, XING Zhi, HOU Yuan-sheng, LUO Ze. 2009: Simulation of Population Dynamics of Bar-headed Geese (Anser Indicus) Around Qinghai lake region and Trend Analysis. Zoological Research, 30(5): 578-584. DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1141.2009.05578

环青海湖斑头雁种群数量动态模拟及趋势分析

Simulation of Population Dynamics of Bar-headed Geese (Anser Indicus) Around Qinghai lake region and Trend Analysis

  • 摘要: 斑头雁是青海湖候鸟中的优势种之一,其未来种群数量的变化对青海湖的保护决策具有重要作用。利用STELLA图形化建模软件,从动力学出发,构建了青海湖地区斑头雁种群数量变化的动态模型。在该模型中,根据前人和青海湖自然保护区对斑头雁的观测研究结果,设置了班头雁的交配、产卵、孵卵、育幼、迁入、迁出、死亡等过程的模型参数。根据斑头雁在青海湖的活动时间,设置以年为模拟单位,选取1/7为模拟步长,对未来25年的青海湖斑头雁种群变化趋势进行了模拟,并进行了灾害模拟。模拟结果表明,未来青海湖斑头雁的最大种群数量,将在20 000余只的饱和数量之内变化。2006—2008年斑头雁观测数据验证表明,该模型模拟结果可信,其方法对青海湖的其他鸟类研究也具有一定的参考价值。

     

    Abstract: Bar-headed geese (Anser indicus) is one of important migratory goose’s species group in Qinghai lake region, the population dynamics of which is the foundation data to decision-making of Bar-headed geese’s protection in Qinghai lake National Nature Reserve in future. A bar-headed goose population dynamics model was constructed in Qinghai lake region regarding the dynamics with STELLA graphical modeling software. The parameters included in the model that describing mating, egg deposition, hatching, brood-rearing, immigrating, emigrating and death of bar-headed goose had been set on the base of long time studied and observed data of bar-headed goose. In running simulation models, we use one year as unit and 1/7 as a time step in accordance of periodic time of bar-headed goose stay in Qinghai lake .The next 25 years’ simulated population changes results of bar-headed goose showed that trend of the maximum bar-headed goose population will vary around 20 thousand in Qinghai lake region. Meanwhile, the population was simulated that assuming calamity strikes in 2010.The model and simulated results about bar-headed goose population are reliable according calibrated results using observed data from 2006 to 2008, and the method of modeling bar-headed goose population provides with some reference to further research on other birds in Qinghai lake region. In the end, some suggestions of protecting bar-headed goose from danger have been put forward based on above results in paper.

     

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